Hello everyone, LunaWolve here!
Welcome to the League Start release of the Chaos Report for the Heist and 3.12 challenge league.
Do keep in mind that this entire video is based on educated guesses or predictions and as such they might not be entirely accurate. Furthermore, I might miss a thing or two that seem obvious to many and for that I apologize, it’s hard to cover everything. If I do miss something you think is important, leave it in the comments down below. What that means, of course, is:
Invest at your own risk.
With the usual disclaimer out of the way, let’s jump right in.
The first segment breaks down Currencies and Commodities, such as influence exalted orbs and fragments. I’ll be giving my rough predictions for how the existing currencies will play out during the first few weeks and over the course of the league in general in this episode.
The OG Exalted Orb has seen one of it’s most steady pricings in any league to date, during harvest.
There are a couple of reasons for why this might be the case:
- Firstly, due to the overabundance of mid- to high-level crafting, we’ve seen a vastly increased amount of exalted orbs being taken out of the economy by the crafting bench. Mostly used for meta crafts or the odd T1 quality or otherwise unobtainable craft from harvest.
- Secondly, while the addition of harvests “free slam” mechanic, even leading so far as to offer free TARGETED slams, has reduced the amount of exalt slams used by players,- this is actually not a large dent in the overall supply. While a lot players might think that exalt slams are a prime reason for exalts to leave the economy, it is actually a far less common reason than the previously mentioned crafting costs from my personaly experience. As a result, this theoretical increase in supply, does not mitigate the extreme rise in the demand for them.
- Lastly and mostly importantly, harvest’s league mechanic has not provided any additional loot to players, that is comparable with previous leagues. While the rewards were often times better than in previous leagues, the actual amount of physical currency dropped by the mechanic itself, was fairly low. Thusly, with the vastly increased demand for crafting and the drastically lowered supply, we end up with exalted orbs being expensive throughout the entire league.
Of course there is also the problem of botting in the economy, but I’d argue that there wasn’t much of a difference to previous leagues, when comparing the overall devaluing of Chaos Orb. Most items that are unrelated to crafting directly and didn’t get hit by any particular nerfs, did not shoot up in their equivalent Chaos Orb price as they should have, if there had been a vast influx of chaos, when looking at the data from previous leagues.
As a result, with no further evidence to go off of, as we can’t look at any correlating data directly and as such, don’t have any concrete proof, I’d conclude that there’s been no more tampering of the economy by botters than is usual, during the last league.
Now getting to talk about heist, I’d predict exalted orbs to have a more turbulent life throughout the league, compared to harvest.
With potentially more Exalted Orb dropping, as a result of the vault access in the heist mechanic, and the removal of everything harvest-craft related lowering their demand, it will be a lot harder for their prices to remain stable, as the meta advances and as a result supply or demand diminishes or increases.
However, as always a warning:
A large portion of the Exalted Orb market is owned by a very small percentage of the playerbase, the majority of the prices will be able to be influenced by them fairly easily. As a result, a lot of the predictions here, may or may not be entirely accurate, depending on that particular playerbases whim.
Take it as a rough guideline and make sure to stock up on Exalted Orb as early as possible in the league, as they are ALWAYS more expensive than the first 2-4 days later on.
As always, make sure to check these prices hourly, as Exalted Orb are a prime trading and stocking target very early on in the league.
If you drop an exalted orb early, hold onto it, unless you know what you’re doing with it. Each day you hold onto it, will usually increase the value of it by 20-30c for the first week. So unless you can make more currency than that as a DIRECT RESULT of spending the exalt, save it and let it passively acrue value.
Hunter’s Exalted Orb
During the first month it usually reaches it’s peak and stays around there until it drops of hard around the 20-30 day mark. This results in a continous downwards trend towards the rest of the league, with some seldom upticks due to the build meta changing slightly.
Last league, the maximum price was around 600c, but it sank down to an average of around 190c for the remainder of the league past that first month. With harvest not going core, we will likely see the return of a slightly increased price-floor for all the influence exalted orbs, by about 100-150c.
As a result, don’t invest in these early, unless absolutely necessary for your build. You will almost always get a better deal about 1 or 2 weeks down the line. And as such, try to make the hunter influence items your last upgrade, in order to save yourself a decent chunk of currency.
The Awakener's Orb has seen it’s highest price point since it’s inception during the last league. This is due to their power of creating double-influenced crafting bases and the fact that harvest made it incredibly easy and efficient to continue crafting a great item after the combination.
Their highest regular pricing reached around 680c 2-3 weeks into harvest. It is extremely unlikely that we will see such high prices again for Heist, as the harvest crafting mechanics are no longer available, making the use of an Awakener Orb more of a gamble than a natural step in the players’ crafting endeavours.
I’d imagine prices roughly similar to the Delirium league prices, which were hovering at an average of about 370-430c. While the Heists might take a chunk out of the supply for the orb, due to many players likely not being able to reach Sirus, as they’re spending too much time in their heists, it will likely be counter-balanced by a large portion of the playerbase returning to their non-crafting ways, comperatively to harvest, drastically lowering the demand as well.
If you aquire one early on, consider holding onto it for a few days for the economy to catch up or use it early to craft some nice items, to potentially cash in on the early-bird bonus of item crafting. The economy for this orb usually reaches it’s early-league peak around the 1-2 week mark, so consider selling them around that time.
If you require a rundown on how the awakener orb mechanics function, feel free to check out the Metamorph Week 3 Episode of the chaos report. I cover the crafting mechanics of the orb in a fairly in-depth manor and also link to further reading and video material in the description of that video.
Crusader’s Exalted Orb
This one will likely see a similar curve to the Hunter's Exalted Orb in Heist league.
Due to its solid mod pool, this is historically the most stable orb out of any of the exalted orbs in the entire game. It held itself around the 150-160c area pretty much through the entire last league, barring the typical drop past the 2-month mark and the super-early league peak. As a result, expect to get a rough idea for the overall pricing of this one about 1-2 weeks into the league.
After that point it usually only fluctuates a bit, but no further than around 20c up and down, throughout the rest of the leagues.
This Orb is a solid choice to build your gear around, as you can normally acquire it for a decent price fairly early on, so don’t be afraid to consider it for your league-starter!
Warlord’s Exalted Orb
The Warlord's Exalted Orb on the other hand, is exactly the opposite of the Crusader's Exalted Orborb in most leagues. It sees large rises and falls throughout the leagues, often starting at an abhorrently pricey floor, sticking around it for about a two to three weeks, only to fall below even the Redeemer’s Orb in value around the end of the league.
This is likely caused by the mod pool being extremely good for early-league builds and being rather poor for builds later on. I’m expecting the Warlord and Crusader orb to see a slight increase in popularity, due to the newly added Fire and Lightning based abilities synergizing well with the mods offered by the specific influences the orbs provide.
For this league, expect a similar price-graph to the hunter’s exalted orb unless there’s reason to believe otherwise. Keep an eye on the popular content creators and their league starters, to determine whether or not we can expect to see a ton of Fire or Lightning based builds.
Based on the gem reveal, I’d anticipated the normal progression for this one, as the gems don’t seem that powerful, to warrant a gigantic rise in fire/lightning-based builds.
Redeemer’s Exalted Orb
The Redeemer's Exalted Orb is always the cheapest of the influence orbs, as it’s influence mod pool is simply not very popular among most player’s builds and there’s been no changes to this in harvest either.
It has seen it’s lowest price point EVER, even dropping below the 100c mark and getting close to the 50c mark for a majority of the league. It’s average price for harvest was around 82-88c, with a mean value of around 75c.
While it is fairly unlikely we’ll see prices THAT low again in Heist, it is very much expected that the Redeemer Orb will continue to be the cheapest out of all the exalted orbs, potentially including the OG Exalted Orb.
During the first week or two, it usually has a fairly high price, compared to later in the league, so try to avoid buying them early on, unless there’s absolutely no way around it for your build.
If you get one early, hold onto it for a day or two and see how the price develops, but be aware that they have historically never risen past the 10-12 day mark, so you’ll want to get rid of them before then.
As always, if you intend on buying any of these orbs just covered, make sure to keep an eye on this EXTREMELY volatile market space and rank them in your order so you know which is the best bang for your buck.
Orb of Alteration have seen their highest prices ever in harvest and will likely be fairly expensive again in this one.
With the focus being placed heavily on crafting in the last league, we saw the Orb of Alteration reach crazy high prices of above 3:1c. While we’re not likely to see a similarly high price this time around, I think it’s to acknowledge the alteration orb as a new currency among the Orb of Alchemy tier.
With Cluster Jewels still being an integral part to many a build and their notables getting a substantial nerf during harvest league, we will also see a huge amount of Orb of Alteration being used to create the necessary jewel structures for the builds, further increasing the demand for them throughout this next league.
We will very likely see an increase in supply for them as well however, as the Heist league mechanic seems to drop a ton of rare items, especially with fairly-decent mod rolls, leading to more players initially picking up rares and selling them to vendors over the course of the league.
I doubt this will out-do the demand increase for overall crafting purposes, but it’s something to keep in mind nevertheless.
For the early league, it is ALWAYS worthwhile to invest some of your Chaos Orb -> Orb of Alteration early, as most of the time you can still pick up 10-20 Alts per Chaos during the first week or so, before they drop down to a 5:1 or lower pricepoint. Early bulking will likely be EXTREMELY worthwhile again this time around, if these predictions come to pass.
This, of course, means that if you are sitting on a ton of Orb of Alteration early, you should NOT sell them for prices below 1:6-8, as they’ll substantially increase over time.
For the Commodity Section, we will be covering the different Fragment pieces as well as the Synthesis and Guardian map drops.
These have been a fairly lucrative piece of the market in the past leagues, prior to Harvest, as shaper runs were essentially free due to the high prices of uber elder fragments and some decent unique drops.
However, ever since the significant nerfs to the last remaining items in the shaper loot pool that were worth something, mainly the Starforge, their prices have been in the figureative dumpster.
We might see the Dying Sun be fairly popular this league, due to the projectile changes and the additional of handful of new projectile-based abilities, which might increase the prices slightly, but is unlikely to cause a major spike, as it would be the ONLY item worth anything in the pool.
As a result, shaper fragments will likely be cheap to acquire, as the overall profit margin of running it is vastly diminished comperatively to previous leagues, by the loss of value from the unique items dropped by the fight itself.
Uber Elder Fragments
They have seen fairly steady prices throughout the entire last league, as the uber elder uniques, especially three-mod Watcher's Eye, have seen fairly high prices throughout the past league. A factor for this is that obtaining uber elder fragments requires the Shaper boss fight to be completed at least twice. As such, each fragment has a certain minimum value, that is dependant on the shaper fragment values multiplied by a certain factor of potential tries required to get the given fragment.
The prices started at around 110c last league, teetering off towards the end of the 2nd and 3rd week towards it’s 75-85c pricepoint for the remainder of the league.
My advice would be to run your uber elders early, to get some of the high-value unique items from the fight before the market gets saturated with them. Once there’s a lot of them, it’s often times more valuable to just sell the fragments, but we’ll take a look at the exact situation next week, as per usual.
Elder fragments themselves were fairly cheap throughout the entire last two leagues and will likely remain to be. The elder boss fight does not really drop any unique items that are still in high demand and as such the prices are simply not going to be very high.
Additionally, most of the fragments are very easy to aquire from the abundance of elder-influenced maps granted by zana and as a result, cannot really be short in supply, once people reach the mid-high tier mapping stage of their characters.
We could POTENTIALLY see a slight shortage of supply, due to heist not being maps and as such not being guaranteed to supply any elder-influenced maps, but if anything happens in that regard, I doubt it’ll have a large impact whatsoever.
The best item you will find in this encounter, is the double-mod Watcher's Eye The best advice for this one is to sell it unidentified.
You can usually sell it for a few exalted orbs and let someone else identify it for you, that way you get a guaranteed cash out, rather than identifying a terrible eye, which is what happens most of the time anyway.
Synthesis Unique Maps
They will likely stick around it’s last-league prices or potentially drop slightly at best. I doubt we’ll see a major increase in their pricing, however, a slight increase could happen, due to the same reason that elder fragments or shaper fragments could increase.
With heist being an alternative to maps, there will be less people running maps overall, so there will be a smaller supply of special maps too, unless heist decides to drop a ton of those as well, but we don’t know this to be the case yet.
As such, make sure to properly check your zana store on the regular, as she can sell this map for cheap to you, which will then allow you to either run it, if you’re strong enough, or sell it for a pretty penny to other players that want to try their luck at a bottled faith drop.
Unique Item Watchlist
With those Currencies and Commodities covered, let’s move onto our unique item watchlist. I’ll be listing a few unique items that you might not have considered when thinking about what unique items might become worthwhile in the upcoming heist league release.
I’m purposefully trying to avoid the most high-visibility uniques, as those don’t need any shoutouts for you to know that they’ll be expensive as always.
Inpulsa’s Broken Heart
With the addition of new spells, especially lightning-based ones and changes to older ones, the Inpulsa becomes a fairly popular option to fix up holes in the clear speed or just to buff the abilities further.
With the Inpulsa's Broken Heart also having a rather low drop-rate, any increases to the demand can impact the prices rather heavily, so keep an eye on the prices early on!
There are no known ways to target-farm this specific body armour, so if you require this one for your build, make sure to keep an extra keen eye on the development for the prices of it, to snipe one at the right point.
Despite the heavy nerfs to Glancing Blows, one of the best shields in the game is still very hard to scuff at.
It has always seen quite the large popularity, especially last league, but with the nerfing of glancing blows making it pretty much MANDATORY to run a recovery on block, it could lead to an increase in demand for this item.
Last league it started off with a crazy high price-point of around 1300c, rapidly dropping down over the course of around 40 days to it’s end of league price-point of around 200c. Wether or not we’ll see the same price graphs as last is questionable, but what is not questionable, is whether or not the item will be worth a lot early on.
That’s a definite yes.
If you get one early, sell it as soon as possible.
Apep’s Supremacy and Apep’s Rage
Heist league brings with it a lot of new curse related things and as such, also some abilities that deal spell-based chaos damage. Many of which scale really well with flat added chaos damage and these two weapons provide some of the highest added flat chaos damage in the game.
Especially abilities that allow the chaos damage to apply elemental ailments, such as the new “Hexblast”, benefit tremendously from the flat added chaos damage, as they apply to all three ailments at the same time.
Apep's Rage is a rare drop and cannot be farmed specifically, but there are a few divination cards that can drop unique wands, which can help you acquire this one.
Similarly to the previous two mentioned uniques, this one has a high chance to be looked at by a lot of players due to the reworked curse and mark mechanics.
Depending on whether or not the doom mechanic is something that a lot of people want to build around, being able to apply an additional curse and also do so faster, thanks to the cast speed increases the gloves provide, seems extremely potent.
The prices for these gloves usually hover around the 1-3c area, meaning they’re extremely cheap throughout the previous leagues. As such, don’t bank on them too hard, thinking they’ll be the next Headhunter or anything, but keep them in mind for your own builds and also just double-check on them a few days into the league, to make sure you’re not accidentally vendoring a unique glove that might’ve risen to the 10-50c areas without you noticing.
There are no known ways to farm this unique item. It’s a rare drop or can be gotten from the random unique-glove divination cards.
Outside of those particular uniques, keep a close eye on the uniques related to the Summoner playstyle, as with any league since 3.6, we will likely see a huge margin of the playerbase opt for the easy league-start route, of simply spamming minions at everything that moves until it’s dead. Despite the nerfs, Summoners are MORE than fine and will likely continue to be the most played thing in the league, at least for the first few weeks.
The Meta Predictions
As just mentioned, summoners are likely going to still be extremely popular, due to the ease of use and the low cost of entry to become a powerful summoner. The nerfs that came with the 3.12 changes were not substantial at all for the majority of the summoning builds and the QOL provided by GGG through the auto-summoning on logout, is something that the playerbase has been requesting and looking forward to for a very long time.
Additionally, as Tricksters were not touched whatsoever and Essence Drain + Contagion also has seen no changes, it is likely that these two will go hand-in-hand together again, as a very popular choice.
Personally, I’ve seen a lot of players be excited for the new spells showcased, especially the Blazing Salvo and the Charged Lance, so we might see a small percentage of players choose the Blazing Salvo for their miners, and the charged lance for their Archmage Support builds. Talking about archmage, the new gem “Sigil of Power” is also going to work extremely well with the overall archmage playstyle, further increasing it’s skill ceiling and damage ceiling further, as if it wasn’t strong enough already….
Melee Characters are fairly unlikely, outside of the usual Cyclones or early-league Lacerate Gladiators. As with every melee-league, GGG has once again not really addressed the issues that melee faces in the game with harvest, but rather applied a bunch of band-aids that substantially reduce the QOL that melee has while slightly increasing the power, as always. So don’t expect too many players to opt into the 2-handed melee playstyle, especially now that the harvest crafting is no longer available and weapons will go back to being incredible tough to acquire early on.
The zana mods for this league however, are absolutely phenomenal. I can’t remember a league with a better line-up of choices since their introduction.
If you are going hard on mapping and mostly ignoring the heist content, you will be absolutely elated to have all those options available to you.
Two things of note:
- Firstly, Nemesis AND Beyond are back: Orbs of chance will likely be fairly expensive, as will ancient orbs. I normally have ancient orbs in the currency section, but they’re very uninteresting so I added this disclaimer here instead.
- Secondly, “Fortune Favors the Brave” costing only 3c will be EXTREMELY worthwhile to run.
Once you reach the T9+ map areas, you will likely want to spam this option on every single one of your maps. The value you gain from it this league is absolutely insane and CANNOT be understated. Each individual use will net you an equivalent of above 6c worth of value, as the options of zana mods it chooses are not weighted. As such, you have the same chance to get the 16c Delirium option as you have to get the 4c Nemesis one. Use it, abuse it, love it.
Spam the hell out of this option if you’re mapping, seriously.
One thing to keep in mind is that delve will likely be returning to it’s former glory, as the crafting opus magnum.
With harvest not going core, fossils are back to being the only real choice for any kind of targeted crafting and with the mod-tag changes making the crafting process a lot more streamlined and easy to access, we might see more players than usual show their interest in the delve and fossil environments as well!
Strategy & Discussion Segment
With the Meta and Atlas predictions finished, we’d have a strategy discussion section here normally.
However, as is tradition with the prediction episodes, i’ll instead be giving a long list of early-league tips and tricks for you instead.
Rapidfire Tips & Tricks Segment
Many of you that have seen the previous prediction episodes will most likely know the majority of the tips listed here, but they’re important to keep in mind.
As per usual, the chaos recipe will be your #1 money maker early on, if you’re a fast leveler. While it becomes fairly useless over the course of the first few days for most players, during the early league times, this recipe alone can make you multiple dozen exalts, if done right.
Once you reach the blood aqueducts, you can start putting together chaos recipes with the rare items dropped there. Considering that most exalted orbs early on cost only about 20-30c, if you’re fast, you can easily get one exalt for every 10-12 hand-ins!
Sell Extra Maps
Especially during the beginning of a league, people will try to finish their atlas as fast as possible. Often times they won’t mind paying horrendous prices for the one map they require to finish a sector. As such, once you’ve gained the bonus objective on any given map, just sell the rest of them immediately. The prices will drop drastically over the first few days, so the earlier you sell your excess, the more currency you can make on them.
This is especially true for Heist league, as a majority of the league-specific content will not require mapping AT ALL, from what we were told so far, meaning that less players than normal will be trying to rush through the atlas by buying maps.
Resists Amulets & Rings
Early on, these jewellry items in particular are ridiculously worthwhile to identify and sell, as everyone will require a decent amount of resists right after they’re done leveling. They sell like hot cakes and are often worth 20c+ for any decent total resists roll above 100%.
These are good throughout the entire league, but especially early on. Problem solvers are items that have a very high INDIVIDUAL stat. For example 80% cold resistance. Or 100 Dexterity.
These items are amazing for people that just need to fix a problem in their current build, hence the name. These items can be sold for a really high amount, as there rarely are any with those particularly high stats available on the market and the person buying it has no other option.
As such, these can easily sell for 50c+ in the first week or two.
Invest Your Chaos
My personal favorite are Orb of Alteration, as you can also use them for early crafting as well.
Every hour you have Chaos Orb sitting in your stash that does nothing, is wasted passive income you could have gotten by simply converting them.
Flip maps from Zana’s Shop
As with the last 2 leagues, this will still be an incredibly lucrative option, especially with higher tier maps.
You only have to open the Zana map inside of the map you’re running to reset the shop, you do NOT need to enter it nor do you need to complete her mission.
This makes it extremely easy to cycle through her shop in quick succession, using yellow or even white master missions and maps. Maps from T6 to T14 are usually all worth flipping in this manner, netting a ton of easy profit per map on average in this fashion.
You can flip through a few dozen maps in a matter of minutes.
Cluster Jewel Crafting
As with Delirium league, you can expect to make an absolute TON of currency by identifying what cluster jewel nodes are used by players and which ones are in low supply.
We will have to see how hard they are to craft, after everything is said and done with the patches, as they got a REALLY strong nerf at the beginning of Harvest.
If they’re not too hard, they’ll likely be a prime crafting target to make some solid currency throughout the league.
Level up “Enhance” Gems
Placing a couple of Enhance Support gems into your off-hand weapons in order to level them up as you go through the maps and vaults, will likely be a valuable option for once.
With the addition of the roughly 900 new gems with alternate quality options, it is likely that at least a few of them will become meta due to their extremely potent quality modifiers.
Having a lvl 4 Enhance Support ready to go once people get to the point of creating builds around them will likely net you a great deal of currency, especially as enhance base-gems are usually dirt-cheap.
Keep your Gemcutter’s Prisms
With the previously mentioned addition of the roughly 900 new gems with alternate quality options and some of them potentially being meta, Gemcutter's Prism are likely going to see a hell of a lot of use this league.
As their supply is usually fairly limited, as they’re considered a fairly rare currency, the vast increase in demand could lead to a price-spike for them.
For reference, in case you want to keep an eye on the market, last league, their prices fluctuated between 1.8:1 to 1c each. I’d anticipated their prices to be around the 2-3c mark around the 2 week point.
Weekly Delve Update
The Weekly Delve Update will of course return in the next release and will likely be more fruitful than it was during Harvest, considering that with harvest not going core, delve is back to being our only real crafting choice.
Outro & Author Links
And with those last few tips wrapped up, I’ll be ending this chaos report. I hope this post was informative and you learned something from it that you can apply to your own game.
Please let me know if I missed anything or you’d have wanted me to talk about anything in specific that I might not have covered.
If you want to support the creation of these posts and videos, feel free to check out my patreon and maybe consider signing up for it. Any and all support is highly appreciated.
I read ALL of your comments on all the different social medias, so don’t be afraid if I don’t answer. I’ve seen it~!
Lastly, check me out over on twitch.tv/lunaw0lve, I stream pretty much every day and will be live throughout the entire launch window. If you need background noise to keep you busy while leveling, I’ll gladly be yours.
And with that… Thanks for watching and keep farming those exalts!
Data and Screenshots are taken from https://poe-antiquary.xyz